I woke up early this morning and as I opened my bedroom window I noticed a white unicorn in my yard crapping chocolate truffles.
It looked up, gave me a big smile, and then rode off into the sky on a glittering rainbow. Not a bad way to start the day!
For breakfast I was served my favorite Austrian pancake by Wolfgang Puck in person who had decided to swing by to finally return my Ferrari 250 GTO he had borrowed a few weeks ago.
We had a great little chat about the small Austrian town we both grew up in, but unfortunately we got interrupted by an urgent phone call by Margot Robbie who insisted that I was the perfect candidate to take the role of Ken in her next Barbie sequel.
I politely declined and reminded her that I unfortunately already had a commitment to go on safari with Chris Hemsworth and Brad Pitt. We did however agree to meet for dinner very soon.
After breakfast I checked the news and was excited to learn that peace had spontaneously broken out all over the world.
The Israel/Palestine conflict had been finally settled, and miraculously both Putin and Zelenskyy had come to a peace agreement on the very same day. Later that morning I checked the stock market and found the SPX trading at new highs and the VIX at new historic lows.
Turns out that both Democrats and Republicans had finally agreed to settle their political differences. A resolution had been passed to bury the hatched, cross the isle, and return America to its former economic prosperity. (verschrijver: hatchet ?)
Oh and there appears to be a simple and safe cure for COVID now - just as a sidenote.
What a great time to be alive. America is back!
I just spouted above only one single claim is actually true.
Yes, I did in fact grow up in the same small Austrian town as Wolfgang Puck, but all the other stuff is completely made up.
Oh - except for my dinner date with Margot Robbie - that's totally on.
Now given the short squeeze we're currently seeing unfold in the stock market you'd think that at least half of the things I listed above had actually come true.
Over the past four months the SPX has rallied a whopping 600 handles, all while the news keeps reporting one economic disaster after another on both sides of the Atlantic.The VIX is back below the 14 mark where it has absolutely no business being given the current macro economic and political situation.
Now if you've been following me for a while then you probably know that I'm not one to EVER trade contrary to price action. I may take out a hedge to guard my six but over 20 years of being a trader have taught me that price is always the ultimate arbiter of truth.
That said, in that time I've also learned to read the tea leafs of what really goes behind the shiny facade of green candles we're being graced with on a daily basis.For example the implied volatility term structure (IVTS) which is created by calculating a delta between the VIX and VIX3M (previously VXV).
While both readings have been falling over the past few weeks we just saw a fast signal snapback as apparently IV on the 3-month VIX is picking up.
What that means in English is that option sellers are starting to price in more risk on longer term options.
And frankly speaking the only thing that surprises me is that it has taken so long. Here's another 'under the hood' market measure that 99% of option traders don't even know about or at least constantly ignore:What you are looking at is an options chain of META from last March.
Now I know your eyes are about to glaze over, but hang in there because what comes next is very much worth all the suffering. Here's a very similar option chain from earlier this morning before the opening bell (meaning all this has probably changed quite a bit since).
Notice anything?
Look at the 275 put and compare it with the 297.5 call (the closest match I could find).
IV on the 275 put is 31.66% while it's 31.7% on the 297.5 call. Yes they are almost identical.
The same inversion is happening on the 280 and 302.4 strikes. And no, that is NOT normal, in fact I've seen even more extreme readings during trading hours.
So what does this all mean?
Professional option traders call this phenomenon an 'inverted SKEW' and it refers to the fact that the 'volatility smile' on a particular option contract is shifted toward the call side.
And that ONLY happens in two scenarios:
1) The market has crossed prior all time highs.
2) The market is experiencing a bear market relief rally.
In both cases market makers assume increasing upside risk and for that reason they are forced to protect themselves.
One aspect of that is more hedging activity (i.e. buying stock or index futures) to offset the negative delta they just took on by selling you a call.
Another is by commanding a higher premium for a call option in anticipation of more upside due to a possible short squeeze. Higher premiums produce higher IV on those strikes.
And finally they do it because they CAN - excessive greed is always a profitable environment for option sellers.
In conclusion: The inversion of SKEW in option chains of leading products (e.g. META, MSFT, NVDA, etc.) strongly suggests that the market has more violent upside potential, but at the same time the rise in the 3-month VIX against the 30-day VIX tells us that MMs are also pricing in the possibility of a significant market correction over the next quarter.
Plan your trades accordingly.
Shameless Plug: If you're into trading options and also happen to enjoy consistent long term returns then look no further than my Red Pill Quants Unlimited membership, the current win/loss ratio has remained steady at over 80%, meaning out of 5 trades 4 have been winners during the past 2 years.
If you're interested in joining as a member, then let us know and we'll set you up with our premium signal service by the end of the day.
Public Service Announcement: this will be my last post until after Independence Day - meaning I'll be back on Wednesday. Wishing all of my readers a wonderful and relaxing early summer weekend.
Cheers,
Michael Mehrle (previously known as the mole ?)
Als iemand briljant is in traden, dan hoeft hij zijn - haar kennis toch niet te verkopen ? Tenzij het "leraarschap" of het verlangen om iedereen "rijk" (financieel) te maken erin zit. Meer waarschijnlijk is het het verdienen aan het traden en aan andere mensen daarbij "helpen".......
I prefer john constantine to the sandman, although i never saw or read the sandman, vertaling warlock : tovenaar,
John Constantine (/ˈkɒnstənˌtaɪn/)[1] is a fictional character who appears in American comic books published by DC Comics. Constantine first appeared in Swamp Thing #37 (June 1985), and was created by Alan Moore, Steve Bissette, and John Totleben.
The titular Hellblazer,[2][3] Constantine is a working-class warlock, occult detective, and con man from Liverpool who is stationed in London. He is known for his endless cynicism, deadpan wit, ruthless cunning, and constant chain smoking, but he is also a passionate humanitarian driven by a heartfelt desire to do some good in his life. Originally a supporting character who played a pivotal role in the "American Gothic" Swamp Thing storyline, Constantine received his own comic in 1988. The musician Sting was a visual inspiration for the character
Hellblazer 30th Anniversary Celebration: Introduction by Sting
Apart from the act of creating life and giving birth there is perhaps no deeper intimacy than that of murder, especially murder by strangulation, and even more so when perpetrated by ones own brother. Fratricide is perhaps the oldest crime on the statute.
He and I had fought and struggled blindly for weeks in the suffocating darkness to locate and navigate the miraculous opening in the cervical wall with that primal instinct to enter the birthing canal triumphant and most importantly, first.
My brother and I are identical in features if not entirely in demeanor, and so the stronger twin would rob me of my life with the expedient noose of my own umbilical cord, pulled taut and held fast around my neck until I croaked. I didn't stand a chance and John, the victorious brother would be first to taste the sweetness of the new air while I was left behind, inert, stillborn.
If it's true that the souls of murderers and their victims are cursed to be shackled together through countless eternities then that would explain the fact that I can speak of this now, and would indicate that my consciousness has somehow been sustained in some parallel universe only partially linked to the one that my brother currently inhabits, we are still identical, although our paths have diverged.
Occasionally and for reasons I don't dare to explain these separate universes will conspire to converge, John as a powerful sorcerer in his, and me as a musician and singer in mine.
I wish him no malice, he lives in his world with the curse or the dubious blessings of his original sin, while I have been amply compensated in my own, he occupies my dreams and so I like to imagine that I must haunt his.
John Constantine's current fame and the longevity of his success have long intrigued me although I feel he may be singularly unimpressed by any of my own achievements, but that's just the way he is.
From the humblest of beginnings his series, Hellblazer, is the longest-running and most successful title for DC's Vertigo imprint.
My own success as a musician began towards the close of the '70s. I had moved to London from Newcastle, got lucky fronting an ersatz punk band, (just like John did with Mucous Membrane) then had to get smart real quick, because fame is an odd reckoning, an odd and troubling recognition, not actively sought but hard to shake off and a lot like being under surveillance, the whole time.
And so I will develop a protective mask, a public mask, a persona and a brisk walking pace whenever I chose to wander the streets of the city alone.
I wore the trench coat a lot in those days.
I remember climbing the stairs of a sandwich shop one day in Central London and there, sitting alone at a corner table is an extravagantly bearded man with a tractor beam of a stare, his left hand nursing what looks like a cold black coffee, all the while his eyes fixedly upon mine.
I have learned over the years to differentiate the merely star-struck from those exhibiting a genuine intelligence, Francis Bacon would often stare at me across the bar in the soho pub we would both haunt, and so this guy looked like some kind of an artist too, scruffy and intense. I nod flirtatiously with only a thinly veiled mockery, but he keeps on staring, unfazed. I make a quick exit.
A few years later, a thin package will be mysteriously delivered to my office and I will see evidence of my long lost brother for the first time within the pages of a DC comic book, Alan Moore is the author and I struggle with a vague memory of having bumped into him somewhere…
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Je piemel als worstje op de barbecue leggen, dan ben je overal vanaf, insinueerde Nico Bel aan Charles Quarles van Ufford, 1988, zomer, holland net europees kampioen foebele, voetbal, omgeving Geleen, Limburg.
"Waarom praten jullie zo denigrerend over vrouwen, zoals "die heeft nog onder advocaat Loeff gelegen" ?" vroeg menno aan Nico bel, 1988, Europa college, Brugge.
"Angst, allemaal angst."
It's All in the Telling
If you say, "Ça m'est égal" softly with a neutral expression or with a quick bof, aka a Gallic shrug, you probably mean "I don't feel strongly about it," "I'm not fussy," "I'm not bothered" or "I don't mind."
If you say, "Ça m'est égal" a little more strongly or with a flip wave of the hand and a touch of annoyance, you could mean "I don't care" or "It's starting to get on my nerves."
If you say, "Ça m'est complètement égal," you could mean, "I really don't care" or "I couldn't care less."
What does je m'en fous mean?
Definition
The literal meaning is:
- Je → I
- M’en fous → Am f**king it
Even if it literally means that you are f**king it, it’s a famous and very used expression
that means for us: “I don’t care“. We don’t really think about the literal meaning since
we don’t use the word “fous” from “foutre” in other situations.
But as you probably guessed, this is still very familiar and you shouldn’t use it in official
situations, like with teachers, boss, etc.
It’s also useful to know that a “polite” way of saying it exists and it’s
“Peu importe” (It doesn’t matter much). Ça m’est égal. (“It’s egal to me“) is quite polite too.
MOOIE MEIZZEZ
MOOIE MEIZZEZ
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